ROBERT J. PELLATT
COMMISSION SECRETARY
Commission.Secretary@bcuc.com
web site: http://www.bcuc.com
VIA E-MAIL
regulatory.affairs@terasengas.com
Mr. Scott Thomson
Vice President, Finance and Regulatory Affairs
Terasen Gas Inc.
16705 Fraser Highway
Surrey, B.C. V3S2X7
Dear Mr. Thomson:
Re: Terasen Gas Inc.
Gas Supply Mitigation Incentive Program for 2004/05
Further to your January 26, 2006 filing, the Commission accepts the calculation of incentive payments and issues
the attached Commission staff report entitled “Overview of the Gas Supply Mitigation Incentive Program
(“GSMIP”) for 2004/05.
Enclosure
cc:
Interested Parties
TGI/Cor/L-9-06_GSMIP 2004-2005 Report
LETTER NO. L-9-06
SIXTH FLOOR, 900 HOWE STREET, BOX 250
VANCOUVER, B.C. CANADA V6Z 2N3
TELEPHONE: (604) 660-4700
BC TOLL FREE: 1-800-663-1385
FACSIMILE: (604) 660-1102
Log No. 13380
March 9, 2006
Yours truly,
Original signed by:
Constance M. Smith
for:
Robert J. Pellatt
OVERVIEW OF THE
GAS SUPPLY MITIGATION INCENTIVE PROGRAM (“GSMIP”)
FOR 2004/05
1.0
GSMIP Objectives
The intent of the program has not changed over the years and continues to be based on the alignment of the
interests of customers, shareholders and employees. The objectives of the program remain the same from the
initial introduction and continue to be based on five major elements. The current formula was approved by Order
No. G-79-02 for the term between November 1, 2003 and October 31, 2004 (Appendix 1). The continuation of
the formula for 2005 was approved by Order No. G-98-04 (Appendix 2). The following objectives originally
established with the first program continue to serve as guiding principles for the incentive structure of the 2003/04
GSMIP.
1.
Supply Security – The plan should maintain a high security of supply and not adversely affect total net
gas costs.
2.
Alignment of Interests – Terasen Gas should be encouraged to maximize net revenues from off-system
business activities.
3.
Fair and Reasonable Incentives – The objective is to encourage new incentives to capture value.
4.
Simplicity – Plan should minimize administrative effort.
5.
Fair and Reasonable Performance – The performance targets and productivity improvements should be
fair and reasonable.
2.0
Service Quality Indicators (“SQI’s”)
Terasen Gas filed a report with the Commission on December 20, 2005 that outlined its performance relative to
each SQI for the period November 2004 to October 2005. Commission staff reviewed the results of the report
and assessed the performance under the following SQI criteria.
1.
Annual Contract Plan (ACP) – Portfolio Optimization – The ACP was submitted April 27, 2004 and
approved by Commission Letter No. L-36-04 on July 16, 2004. The Commercial Commodity
Unbundling program was incorporated into the Essential Services model that was part of the ACP.
2.
Price Risk Management Plan (PRMP) Implementation – The original PRMP for November 2004 to
October 2006 was submitted in June 30, 2004 and approved by Letter No. L-43-04. The PRMP has been
filed in a timely manner and implemented within the approved guidelines.
3.
Counterparty Risk and Credit Exposure Management – Terasen Gas has effectively managed credit
exposure and prudently avoided non-recoveries for the period in question.
Commodity Supply Reliability – Through commodity, pipeline and storage asset diversification within
the Annual Contracting Plan, Terasen Gas continued to ensure 100 percent delivery of Firm customer
demand for the November 2004 to October 2005 contract year.
2
4.
Gas Cost and Market Pricing Information – The Terasen Gas commodity cost is slightly lower than most
of the other PNW utilities due to the significant amount of Station #2 gas in the portfolio. Station #2 and
AECO monthly prices (which make up 85 percent of the Terasen Gas portfolio) averaged $0.123 Cdn/GJ
to $0.31/GJ below the Rockies prices during the Nov04 to Mar05 period and $0.14/GJ Cdn/GJ to
$0.23/GJ below this reference for the summer. This is in contrast to 2003/04 when the Terasen Gas’ cost
averaged higher than all other PNW utilities due to AECO prices averaging higher than Rockies prices.
Table No. 1 Comparison of the Average Utility Cost of Gas
Northwest
Terasen
Puget
Natural
Cascade
Avista
Gas
cost
$ 6.93
$ 7.01
$6.97
$ 7.02
$ 6.92
Legend:
Terasen - Terasen Gas Inc.
Puget – Puget Sound Energy Inc.
Northwest Natural – Northwest Natural
Cascade – Cascade Natural Gas
Avista – Avista Utilities
3.0
Internal Auditors Examination
In the final stage of the examination, Terasen Gas’ internal auditors and Commission staff have analyzed and
accepted the incentive payment calculation for 2004/05.
4.0
GSMIP Report for 2004/05
4.1
Economic Environment
Table No. 2 below illustrates the average, maximum and minimum prices for Sumas, AECO and Station #2
during the period of the report. The maximum highs for monthly and daily prices at all locations occurred in
October as a result of the hurricanes. March and February were the lowest priced months for the monthly index.
The Daily Index recorded the lowest prices in Nov04.
3
Table No.2 - Daily and Monthly Prices - 2004/05 ($Cdn/GJ)
Monthly Index
Sumas
AECO
St#2
Nov-04
$ 8.24
$7.59
$7.51
Dec-04
$ 7.20
$7.17
$6.64
Jan-05
$ 6.90
$6.59
$6.04
Feb-05
$ 6.58
$6.16
$6.35
Mar-05
$ 6.34
$6.27
$6.30
Apr-05 $ 7.51
$7.09
$7.04
May-05 $ 7.56
$7.28
$7.21
Jun-05 $ 6.49
$6.61
$6.43
Jul-05 $ 7.01
$7.02
$6.86
Aug-05 $ 6.84
$7.18
$6.91
Sep-05 $ 8.84
$9.05
$8.58
Oct-05 $ 10.90
$10.94
$10.36
Average
$ 7.53
7.41
$ 7.18
4.2
Currency
The exchange rate reached a low of 1.1776 US dollars (Sept05) to the Canadian dollar and hit a high of 1.3783
US dollars (May04) in the period. The exchange rate continued to be a highly volatile throughout the gas year.
4.3
Gas Supply Mitigation Incentive Plan 2004/05
The Off-System Revenue available for sharing incentive formula is $25,579,000 and the source of this revenue is
made up of two components: Commodity Resale Eligible Revenue and Transport/Storage Revenue (shown in
Table No. 3). Each segment has a different method of calculation to determine the applicable incentive portion
shared between Terasen Gas and its customers.
Table No. 3 – Off-System Profit Components
Transport and Storage Mitigation
$ 10,094,000
Commodity Resale
$ 15,485,000
Off-System Revenue
$ 25,579,000
The Transportation/Storage Revenue is determined by month and simply added together to determine the total
amount for the year. In this case the total is $10,094,000.
The Commodity Resale Eligible Revenue is calculated by taking into account a hurdle rate. The hurdle discount
is 17/(Total Commodity Resale Sales volume in a year for the commodity component) or 36.5 PJ. The hurdle
discount is $.466/GJ and the eligible hurdle rate then is the annual average Sumas index ($7.234/GJ) less the
hurdle discount or $6.768/GJ (Average Annual Sumas Index - Hurdle Discount). The hurdle rate times the
cumulative annual volume by month results in the hurdle margin.
Daily Index Average
Sumas
AECO
St#2
$6.41
$6.07
$6.00
$7.01
$6.54
$6.58
$6.56
$6.18
$6.23
$6.47
$6.22
$6.16
$7.13
$7.05
$6.88
$7.51
$7.38
$7.27
$6.66
$6.63
$6.44
$6.87
$6.95
$6.73
$7.20
$7.09
$7.03
$8.63
$8.71
$8.41
$10.18
$10.54
$10.24
$11.77
$11.80
$11.46
$ 7.70
$ 7.60 $ 7.45
39%
61%
4
The Commodity Resale Eligible Revenue minus the hurdle margin together with Transportation and Storage
Revenue then results in the Off-System Revenue eligible for incentive or $25,578,259.
Terasen Gas' incentive is 5 percent of the first $1 million and 1.25 percent of remainder. Transportation/Storage
revenue of $10,093,720 is added to revenue eligible for an incentive of $15,484,540 and results in $25,578,259.
The first $20,000,000 has an incentive of $1,000,000. The remainder or $5,578,259 has 1.25 percent applied and
results in $69,728. Therefore the total incentive to TGI is $1,000,000 plus $69,728 or $1,069,728.
4.4
GSMIP Report Overview and the Development of the Incentive Determination
4.4.1
Total Off-System Sales Quantity
Table No. 4
Commodity Resale
Transport & Storage
PJ
$ CDNx *1000
PJ
$ CDN*1000
2000/01
28.9
$47,062
18.4
$51,193
2001/02
20.5
$16,609
27.8
$16,761
2002/03
9.6
$19,331
49.1
$11,486
2003/04
29.9
$20,576
64.3
$11,402
2004/05
36.5
$15,585
41.0
$10,094
% Change
22%
-25%
-36%
-11%
As shown in Table No. 4, Commodity Resale increased by about 6.6 PJ as a warmer than normal winter allowed
term gas to be available for this activity. The extra term gas was contracted as a safety margin to avoid being at
risk for spot gas during the winter period.
In November 2004 Terasen Gas assigned 56.5 TJ/d of Nova capacity to Northwest Natural Gas that had
previously been held by PG&E as part of the Southern Crossing Pipeline (“SCP”) service. This was the primary
driver for less Back to Back sales (41.0 PJ vs 64.3 PJ in the prior year) in the Transportation and Storage category
and a drop in this segment of about 36 percent in volume.
5
4.4.2
Off-System Sales Revenue
Table No. 5 - 2004/05 Sumas Price Index vs. Other Indices (Prices $/GJ)
Average
Average
Spot
Average
Average
Average
Average
Sumas
Purchase
Hunt
Kingsgate
Empress
AECO
Month
Index
s
Price
Price
Price
Price
N
$ 6.41
$ 4.94
$ 7.39
$ 5.78
$ 6.29
D
$ 7.01
$ 6.89
$ 7.07
$ 6.85
$ 6.76
$ 6.39
J
$ 6.56
$ 6.37
$ 6.76
$ 6.32
$ 6.40
F
$ 6.47
$ 6.13
$ 6.54
$ 6.40
M
$ 7.13
$ 7.20
$ 7.19
A
$ 7.51
$ 7.54
$ 7.42
$ 7.61
$ 6.94
M
$ 6.66
$ 6.77
$ 6.76
J
$ 6.87
$ 6.71
$ 6.79
J
$ 7.20
$ 7.10
$ 7.11
A
$ 8.63
$ 7.02
$ 7.40
S
$ 10.18
$ 7.55
$ 10.01
O
$ 11.77
$ 11.55
$ 12.09
$ 11.90
Table No. 6 – Pricing Graph for Table No. 5
Off-System Sales
As shown in Tables No. 5 and 6, spot purchases were for the most part below the Sumas Index. When the spot
price is less than the monthly, sales generated from Huntingdon, Kingsgate/Empress and AECO will result in a
loss in revenue. The number of Off-System Sales transactions decreased by about 10 percent over 2003/04 as
shown on Table No. 7.
6
Capacity Release
Capacity Release transactions decreased by 88 percent, while the number of customers stayed about the same as
last year (Table No. 7).
Purchases
Purchase transactions decreased by 7 percent and the number of customers increased by 18 percent.
Table No. 7 - Off-System Activity
2003/04
Number
Off-System Sales
Margin
Number of
customers
36
Transactions
3070
Capacity Release
Number of
customers
Transactions
85
Purchases
Number of
customers
28
Transactions
2833
Total Transactions
5988
4.4.3
Total Off-System Revenue Components after the Commodity Hurdle Rate
The major sources of Off-System sales revenue are shown in Table No. 8 (based on Terasen Gas Inc. GSMIP
Report Appendix #1). It is broken down into the relevant components of Sales Margin, Capacity Release, Hedge
Revenue Storage and Miscellaneous.
In the winter months an allocation of T-south transportation mitigation was made between GSMIP and SCP.
GSMIP was assigned a 21 percent allocation and the remaining portion or 79 percent allocated to SCP for the
period November 2004 to March 2005. In the months of April to October 2005, GSMIP was allocated 75 percent
with 25 percent apportioned to SCP. The allocation formula was based on the total available T-South capacity
once the Annual Contracting Plan was approved and the amount of SCP capacity set.
2004/05
Change
Number
Change
16%
31
-14%
15%
2,748
-10%
6
-25%
6
0%
-66%
10
-88%
-22%
33
18%
33%
2,621
-7%
18%
5,379
-10%
7
Table No. 8 - Total Off-System Revenue after the Commodity Hurdle Rate
2003/04
Sales Margin
$28,256,420
Capacity Release
$1,582,889
Hedge Revenue
$0
Storage
$297,000
Miscellaneous (Matched Sales &
$1,841,629
Purchases, Monthly Park/Lends,
Cochrane & Philips Extraction,
CanWest T-S )
Total Off-System Revenue
$31,977,938
Available for Incentive Sharing
4.4.3.1
Sales Margin - $20,094,259
There was an increase in Commodity Resale volumes; however, the resale margin decreased by 25 percent from
the same period last year. The average annual resale price was below the average annual Sumas Index by
$.04 Cdn/GJ and Terasen Gas used winter recallable Commodity Resale deals to mitigate this price.
Terasen Gas sold excess storage gas in the summer months when prices were approximately $.50 Cdn/GJ greater
than winter prices. In addition, Terasen Gas took action to generate savings for the core market that was not
recognized by the incentive mechanism. Storage gas amounting to 7.5 PJ was left in place in the summer
generating additional savings of $10.9 million and avoiding additional withdrawal/injection charges of $2.1
million.
Table No. 9 indicates the trading points where the sales margin was achieved. The majority of the Sales Margin
was collected at Huntingdon.
Table - 9 Sales Margin Reconciliation
Huntingdon
Station 2, Aitken Creek, Ft.Nelson
Alberta (NIT)
Kingsgate
Empress
Industrial
T-South/SCP
Total
2004/05
% Difference
$20,094,349
-25.3%
$1,387,514
-12.3%
$0
0%
127,704
-57.0%
$3,968,692
+61.2%
$25,578,259
-20.0%
$ 6,931,792
$ 28,776
$ 17,851
$ 957,135
$ 10,429,460
$ 1,317,784
$ 411,551
$ 20,094,349
8
4.4.3.2
Capacity Release – $1.388 million
Capacity Releases, which included capacity assignments, increased by 13.8 percent over the prior year in dollar
value. This was principally the result of Terasen Gas assigning a greater quantity of excess T-South capacity for
the summer at $.045 Cdn/GJ margin on 18 PJ of gas.
4.4.3.3
Hedge Revenue – $0 million
There were no opportunities presented in the forward curve to capture gas price margins between the current price
and the forward price.
4.4.3.4
Storage Mitigation Revenue - $.127 million
This revenue resulted from storage that was not required by the Core Market and leased out temporarily to third
parties.
4.4.3.5
Miscellaneous $2.969 million
Miscellaneous Revenue is made up of the following components:
1. The Cochrane & Conoco/Phillips extraction plant contributed $.9 million of revenue. This facility
extracts liquids from the gas moved by Terasen Gas to the Empress border. Conoco/Philips then sells
off the liquids but the heat content of gas to Terasen’s respective counterparties remains about the
same. (Terasen Gas receives about $.025 Cdn/GJ for the gas that is sold at Empress).
2. In the November to October 2005 period, TGI acquired approximately 10,000 GJ/d of T-South firm
service from CanWest for a one time incremental revenue gain of $.802 million. Terasen Gas
effectively swapped one year T-South service for 3-year capacity from CanWest at no incremental
cost.
4.4.3.6
Total Off-System Revenue Eligible for the Sharing Formula
Table No.10 – Comparison of the Total Revenue and effect from Hurdle Rate
Total Available
Total
Margin Ineligible
for Incentive
Ratio
Years
Revenue
due to Hurdle Rate
Sharing
Revenue/Profit
2004/05
$272,482,083
$ 246,903,813
$ 25,578,259
1065%
2003/04
$197,709,291
$ 165,731,353
$ 31,977,938
618%
2002/03
$ 74,671,405
$ 43,855,052
$ 30,816,353
242%
2001/02
$ 49,112,762
$ 15,742,377
$ 33,370,385
147%
2000/01
$146,872,177
$ 48,617,669
$ 98,254,508
149%
1999/00
$ 85,914,477
$ -
$ 85,914,477
100%
1998/99
$ 57,434,996
$ -
$ 57,434,996
100%
As shown in Table No. 11 the total revenue available for profit sharing after applying the hurdle rate was
$25,578,259 or a 25.01 percent decrease over 2004/05.
9
5.0
Incentive Sharing
Table No. 11 Off-System Incentive Sharing
Core Market
Terasen Gas
Total
Inc.
Commodity Resale
$ 14,900,028
$ 584,511
$ 15,484,540
Transport & Storage
$ 9,608,503
$ 485,217
$ 10,093,720
Total
$ 24,508,531
$ 1,069,728
$ 25,578,259
As indicated in Table No. 11, the Terasen Gas share for 2004/05 is $1,069,728 and the Core Market portion
amounted to $24,508,531. This reflects the agreed upon formula and provides approximately $1 million to TGI to
perform the off-system sales function.
Table No. 12 indicated the relative comparison of the Incentive Sharing results over the last 7 years. Since
2001/02 gas year, Terasen Gas has received an incentive of approximately $1 million.
Table No.12
Historical Record of Incentive Sharing Results from 1998 to 2005
Years
Core Market
Terasen Gas
Total
2004/05
$24,508,531
$1,069,728
$25,578,259
2003/04
$ 30,828,214
$ 1,149,724
$ 31,977,938
2002/03
$ 29,681,149
$ 1,135,204
$ 30,816,353
2001/02
$ 32,203,255
$ 1,167,130
$ 33,370,385
2000/01
$ 95,311,415
$ 2,943,092
$ 98,254,507
1999/00
$ 83,816,615
$ 2,097,867
$ 85,914,482
1998/99
$ 56,049,121
$ 1,385,875
$ 57,434,996
6.0
Innovation
The maximization of net revenues from off-system business activities requires innovation and this is the
underlying emphasis of the program. Terasen Gas is introducing one or two innovations per year and each one of
then becomes part of the base program.
• Terasen Gas bought gas at Station #2 and sold it at Kingsgate to lock in 6.1 PJ and $412,000 of margin.
• The Park/lend activity was up significantly over 2003/04. This generated 5.4 PJ and $2.3 million of
margin, vs. 2.5 PJ (+116%) and $0.7m (+229%) last year. This activity required constant monitoring of
forward price differentials then pursuing deals with counterparties while balancing storage refills during
summer.
• A one year T-South transportation agreement was swapped for 3 year term generated $802,000 of
additional margin.
10
7.0
Conclusion
1. There was a substantial increase of 25 percent in Commodity Resale volumes; however, the spot price was
less than the monthly price for the most part. The result is that the overall revenue from this category
declining by 22 percent.
2. The daily price and monthly indexes actually peaked in Oct05 as a result of the hurricane season when natural
gas supply was disrupted along the Gulf of Mexico.
3. Transportation and Storage revenue declined by 11 percent and volumes declined by 36 percent.
4. No hedges were put in place as no revenue could be generated by locking in the forward price.
5. Innovation was demonstrated (See Section 6).
6. An incentive profit in the order of $1,000,000 continues to provide sufficient motivation for GSMIP.
Misc_Reports/Revised GSMIP 2004-05
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